All Things Fixed Ops Economic Outlook: Source

  • The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% while the labor force participation rate remained at 62.5% for a second consecutive month.
  • Hourly earnings rose almost 1% month over month, partly so total wage growth rose 4.5%, the highest since September 2023.
  • This year, the US economy will likely experience below-trend but positive job growth with the unemployment rate likely rising to 4.1% by year-end.


Wholesales to Retail Trending: Source

  • Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index fell 1.0%. Those same four weeks delivered an average decline of 0.1% between 2014 and 2019. That can mislead you.
  • Over January, daily MMR Retention, averaged 99.6% so market prices were below MMR but moved higher over Dec.
  • The average daily sales conversion was up almost 1%, higher than January in the last three years.

Retail Sales Market Outlook: Source

  • In November last year we saw an increase over November 2023 and last month December 2023 beat December 2022 in retail sales volume. That indicates that January through April could look much like we see below.


Fixed Ops Aging VIO State:  Source

  • According to studies, there will be 76 million automobiles in the U.S. that are at least 16 years old in 2023.[2]
  • In the last 10 years, there has been a 60% rise in the average duration of vehicle ownership for both new and used automobiles
  • Americans spent 162% more on towing, 124% more on new tires, and 117% more on vehicle washes and cleaning
John Ellis CEO & Founder of The Automotive Advisor Team, LLC

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO The Automotive Advisor Team, Inc. BEVEveryting, Inc. Double E Consulting, Inc.

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