Automotive Economic Outlook: Source
- The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% while the labor forc
- e participation rate remained at 62.5% for a second consecutive month.
- Hourly earnings rose almost 1% month over month, partly so total wage growth rose 4.5%, the highest since September 2023.
- This year, the US economy will likely experience below-trend but positive job growth with the unemployment rate likely rising to 4.1% by year-end.
Wholesales to Retail Trending: Source
- Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index fell 1.0%. Those same four weeks delivered an average decline of 0.1% between 2014 and 2019. That can mislead you.
- Over January, daily MMR Retention, averaged 99.6% so market prices were below MMR but moved higher over Dec.
- The average daily sales conversion was up almost 1%, higher than January in the last three years.
Retail Sales Market Outlook: Source
- In November last year we saw an increase over November 2023 and last month December 2023 beat December 2022 in retail sales volume. That indicates that January through April could look much like we see below.
Retail Supply Market Outlook: Source
- Used car day supply is sitting at 47 days as opposed to the pre-pandemic average of 60 days.
- Black Book indicates Used Car average turn is at 54 days down from 63 days.
- Job growth reaccelerated to stronger-expected heights in January.
- The new vehicle sales pace declined to the slowest since March 2023 due to affordability.
- The number of used vehicles available for purchase has remained higher than the low point seen in early April, but Kelley Blue Book analysts expect used car prices to remain generally high for several years. Automakers built about 8 million fewer cars during the pandemic. Used car inventories could remain low for years as those cars never find their way to the used market, keeping prices higher than Americans had grown accustomed to.