Economic Update: Source

  •  At the beginning of the year, inflation was up almost 7% and is now moving in the right direction it is down by approximately .4% in September.
  • 3% of small businesses consider inflation the number one hindrance to their growth and success so this is a good number moving into the last quarter of the year and the first part of 2024.
  • However, wages and employment have kept the fed on alert as each month after April of this year wage growth has outpaced inflation by 2 to 3 % points.

“Inflation slowing to its lowest annual rate since January is news that both the Fed and investors can get behind,” said Mike Loewengart, the head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley. “But remember that even as we see a slowdown, prices remain elevated and have a long way to go before normalizing.”

Retail Sales Trending Source

  • New Vehicle Retail is expected to come in at a 6.9% increase from October 2022.
  • Week over Week new retail sales growth was down 13.2%
  • Lot Linx reported week over week overall used sales growth was down 16.9%.

 

Retail Price and Supply Trending Source

  • New retail inventory levels in October are expected at a 5.5% increase from last month with the price trending down almost $500 dollars to $45,650.
  • That’s a 41.2% increase compared with October 2022, but still well below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Stocking levels of used inventory this year show a pretty steady increase and up 8.3%.

 

Wholesale Market Trends: Source

According to Black Book, two to six-year-old inventory valuations are steady while Manheim’s MMR is declining rapidly week over week. Know the difference between these two indexes.

 

Electric Vehicles Tends:  Source

  • EV retail share reached an all-time high of 9.0% in September, up from 6.8% a year ago.
  • The percentage of new-vehicle shoppers who are ‘very likely’ to consider buying or leasing an EV is at 26%, the same as in August.

Summary Source

  • The total retailer profit per unit—which includes grosses, finance, and insurance income—is expected to reach $3,182 in October. While this is 28.9% lower than a year ago, it is still more than double the amount in October 2019. Truck/SUVs are expected to have accounted for 79% of new-vehicle retail sales in October.
  • And yes, there is a lot of water out there but the average trade-in equity for October is trending towards $8,956, down $378 from a year ago.
  • Two of the best PVR channels we see from our program with our clients are Wholesale Trades and New Car Trades. If you want to know what wholesale trades are, reach out.
  • For more details and sources click here.