All Things Used Cars Economic Outlook: Source

  • Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment reveals a significant decrease in U.S. auto dealer sentiment in Q4 2023
  • The Dealer 3-month market outlook index matched an all-time low.
  • It is easy to get dismayed, but tax season and possible interest rate pullbacks bring a promise of tailwinds in 2024.

 

Wholesales to Retail Trending: Source

Accelerating some, the 3-year-old index decreased 0.5% to 86.7%. Non-luxury was down 0.5% and luxury decreased 0.7%.

  • Sale prices continue to run lower than MMR (-1.81%)
  • Lane efficiency is currently higher than last year and follows the 2021 trend more closely.
  • The used retail sales rate is running at a similar rate to previous years with a days’ supply at 48 days.
  • New car sales trended higher than in the last two years, but inventory continues to build with a days’ supply at 67.

 

All Things Used Cars Summary: Source

  • We are beginning to see what major used retailers are doing right now and it tells a story of tax season prep.
  • What they’re doing in the market we have to be mindful of how that impacts the overall playing field.
  • Over the years we have identified the new year jump-off trends revealing what feels like “Overpaying” today is “Underpaying” tomorrow.
  • November sales rate was a .2% higher than last November. If that indicates we are on last year’s trajectory for Q1 of 2024, Janu through April should show month-over-month sales growth.
John Ellis CEO & Founder of The Automotive Advisor Team, LLC

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO The Automotive Advisor Team, Inc. BEVEveryting, Inc. Double E Consulting, Inc.

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