Economic Outlook: Source

As of Feb. 9, almost two weeks into tax filing season, the IRS had issued more than 7.4 million refunds.

In comparison, the IRS had sent out over 13.3 million refunds by Feb. 10, 2023.

Tax season last year started six days earlier, however, on Jan. 23, 2023, the IRS had nearly a week longer to process tax returns and send refunds.

The average refund size is also down 12.8%, from $1,997 for 2023’s tax season through Feb. 10, to $1,741 for this season through Feb. 9

However, if a taxpayer’s wages do not grow to meet the 7% inflation growth rate, or file for child tax credits will see up to a 7-% increase in their refunds.


Wholesales to Retail Trending: Source

  • Week over week three-year-old values increased 0.2%.
  • Luxury increased 0.1% and non-luxury increased 0.2%.
  • Sale prices are still slightly below MMR (-0.59%).

Retail Sales Market Outlook: Source

  • Used retail sales stronger than in most previous years driving used days’ supply is lower than typical levels to 42.
  • New car sales continue to trend higher than in previous years as inventory builds and is at 77 days.

Summary: Source

There’s no question we’re starting to see sales rate and acquisition costs mirror prior years going into tax season.

With the IRS being almost 40% behind prior years in refund disbursements, we can expect the best sales weeks are still ahead of us.

With the used car volume availability trending down as by black book 14% down from 2021 and 25% down in 2025 from 2021, you can bet the prices will rise.

John Ellis CEO & Founder of The Automotive Advisor Team, LLC

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO The Automotive Advisor Team, Inc. BEVEveryting, Inc. Double E Consulting, Inc.

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