Auto Market Economic Outlook: Source

  • The IRS reported that the average refund is now up 6.1% from $3,145, 1% higher than reported two weeks back.
  • The IRS issued are down 13.8% from a year ago creating a longer runway for dealers to see returns coming into the stores.
  • More consumers are feeling optimistic about consumer sentiment at 95% which is the highest it’s been since January of 2022.

New and Used Retail Sales  and Day Supply Trending: Source

  • Retail prices flat or decreasing very little. Spreads continue to drop due to increasing wholesale and flat or decreasing retail values.
  • The used retail sales rate increased again, running ahead of most previous weeks. Days’ supply still low at 37 days.
  • New car sales trend is like 2019 but inventory also continues to build. Days’ supply moved down to 70 days.

Manheim Wholesales Market Source

  • The 3-year-old index moved up 0.5% to 102.0%. Luxury increased 0.3% and non-luxury increased.
  • Wholesale values increased for most model years, but increases were smaller this week
  • Sale prices moved back below MMR (-0.57%). Lane efficiency plateauing.

Black Book: Source

  • The volume-weighted, overall Truck segment increased +0.24% compared to the depreciation seen the prior week of -0.02%.
  • The 0-to-2-year-old models gained +0.09% on average and the 8-to-16-year-olds increased by +0.06% on average.
  • Ten of the thirteen Truck segments increased last week.
  • Although the broader Truck market saw growth, both the Mid-Size and Full-Size Luxury Truck segments experienced decreases last week, with declines of 0.05% and 0.40%, respectively.
  • The Full-Size Pickup segment saw a modest increase of 0.06% last week, marking its first gain in forty weeks. This is a noteworthy change from the sharp depreciation experienced last November, when values declined over 2% in just one week,

Summary: Source

  • According to Cox Automotive, leads are down y/y in March on both Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, but leads are up for the month compared to February on both sites.
  • Unique leads per dealer are down y/y in March for new and used vehicles, but new leads are up for the month compared to February on websites hosted by Dealer.com.
  • Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 19% y/y last week as applications per dealer saw an improving trend.
  • Service trends on Xtime relative to last year improved last week as completed appointments were down 1% y/y.
John Ellis CEO & Founder of The Automotive Advisor Team, LLC

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO The Automotive Advisor Team, Inc. BEVEveryting, Inc. Double E Consulting, Inc.

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