Economic Outlook: Source

  • The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reported receiving 90.3 million returns by March 29,
  • Now that is a 0.2% increase from the previous year.
  • The average tax refund has risen by 4.8% to $3,050.
  • The Fed’s inflation target is becoming harder to hit, reducing the chances of multiple interest rate pullbacks in the second half.

 

Wholesales Market Source

  • The 3-year-old index moved down 0.2% to 101.8%.
  • Lane efficiency went up 0.4% to 61.6%.
  • Seven of the nine Car segments increased last week.
  • Twelve of the thirteen Truck segments increased last week.

 

Current Retail Environment Source

  • Average New Car Interest Rate: 7.1%
  • Trades With Negative Equity: 23%
  • Average Negative Equity: $6167
  • Payments + $1000/mo.: up 17%


Summary:
Source

  • The market is beginning to soften in sales and used vehicle values.
  • Big players like CarMax are down 10% or more and overleveraged in aging inventory.
  • Managing day supply to current sales rate and market condition is what’s helping dealers stay optimally leveraged in their market.