Economic Automotive Outlook: Source  

  • Economic growth is expected to slow towards the end of 2024 from the combination of stubborn core inflation, higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and increased uncertainty.
  • Consumer spending will be squeezed as savings accumulated during the pandemic are depleted, however strong confidence will partially offset this.
  • Experian projects CPI inflation will continue to ease over the coming quarters but will remain above the Fed’s target of 2% until early 2025 with the unemployment rate edging up to 4% in 2024 as post-pandemic ultra tightness fades.

Wholesales Market Source

  • The 3-year-old index depreciated 0.5% to 100.4%.
  • Wholesale values depreciated for all model years.
  • conversion rate, remained steady at 57%, unchanged from the previous week.

 

Retail Trending: Source

  • Retail prices declined 0.1% for non-luxury and 0.4% for luxury.
  • Six-week lagged spreads continue to drop due to increasing profitability if sold within the 4 week cycle.

 

Summary: Source

  • The current sales environment for new and used vehicles has improved over the last quarter
  • The new-vehicles sales index improved 1 point to 52,
  • The used-vehicle sales index increased 1 point to 40,
  • However, for franchised dealers, the used-vehicle sales index held steady near a record low of 51 in Q1.

For independent dealers, the used-vehicle sales index increased by 1 That suggests becoming exceptional used car operations will help grow market share for franchise operations.

John Ellis CEO & Founder of The Automotive Advisor Team, LLC

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO The Automotive Advisor Team, Inc. BEVEveryting, Inc. Double E Consulting, Inc.

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