Economy  

The U.S. government on Thursday is expected to report the economy grew at a 1.8% annual pace in the second quarter, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Despite that, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, citing still elevated inflation as a rationale for what is now the highest U.S. central bank policy rate in 16 years.

In the most recent economic projections from Fed, policymakers expect at least one more quarter-percentage-point increase would be needed by the end of this year.

 

New Car Outlook

Both the new and used markets show only minor changes this week. However, it does seem that there is some weakening in the new market with sales pace down 25K from two weeks ago and the price average Listing Price is $46,981, down $567 from two weeks ago.

 

Used Car Outlook:

  • The Used Retail Days-to-Turn estimate is currently around 51 days down from last week’s 54 days but still 20 days higher than this time last year.
  • Days of supply is 47, down one from two weeks ago now 9% below last year with sales up 31K from two weeks ago. Sales are now flat compared to this week last year.
  • The average Listing Price is $27,221, up $49 from two weeks ago but down 3% from last year this week.

 

 

Wholesale Outlook: Source

 The Car segment decreased by -0.59 and the Truck segment decreased -0.50%

  • The 3-year-old index dropped another 0.9% while lane efficiency increased for 3-year-old models
  • Vehicles are going for 2% below MMR and margins are holding.

 

Retail Margin Outlook

 

Looking at Black Book’s average of 2-6year old models, the retail price drop shows some momentum, but looking at Manheim’s 3-year-old model the drop for that age vehicle is in a much different state. The reason is that Black Book is blending inventory built pre-pandemic, the 4-6-year-old models, and that skews the true picture. The true price elasticity outlook can be better told by looking at the 1-3-year-old indexed. Those are the years when the inventory is in the shortest supply but has the largest consumer demand.

Luxury is declining faster in retail value than non-luxury but they are both declining equally in wholesale value. That screams that day-to-front line and day-to-turn are critical for your high-dollar inventory.  The guidance to win is simple, stay on top of your used inventory investment portfolio, and manage age policy accordingly.