The Automotive Advisor Team

Economic Outlook: Source

 

Consumer prices were unchanged in October, the slowest monthly growth since July 2022. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% over the past 12 months,

Retail sales edged down 0.1% in October, pulling back slightly and ending six straight months of growth.

While consumer spending continues to provide resilience to the U.S. economy, Americans hit the pause button on spending in October. More than likely, the steady stream of bad news left consumers in a bit of a funk, with some hesitance to open their pocketbooks more amid many challenges.

 

Retail Sales Trending

The volume of vehicles sold via a dealership, thus removing private party sales — is estimated to be 1.57 million in October, down only 0.4% from the 1.58 million recorded in September.

 

Day Supply:

Days’ supply in mid-October reached 62, the highest point since the spring of 2021. A year ago, the days’ supply was 48.

 

Retail Price Trends:

As shown below, the discount for used retail prices is minimal, shown by the tightness between the orange and blue line below.

 

Wholesale Market Trends:

 

Wholesale values decreased again in the 1st half of November as values have been lower over the last 6 weeks. Since the beginning of the month, Sales Conversion has risen as demand begins to firm up while MMR Index values accelerated their declines over the last several weeks – depreciating more than is normal at this time of year. The wholesale market supply remains tighter than last year and against 2019 levels.

 

The wholesale market is beginning to show signs of life and becoming more active and competitive as seen below with the 2023 red trend line showing sales rate on a steep and stead incline meaning dealers are buying inventory actively again.

 

Retail Margin Trends:

This PVR gap can be seen again below with the solid yellow line representing the average retail price of the 2020 MY vs the average wholesale price of that same model year in blue. The gap is suggested PVR before front-line ready expenses. As you can see below, there is as big of a gap today as at any other time this year.

 

Summary

The market presents opportunities for sales and profit for any dealer who can find the right inventory at the right price for the shoppers in their market. You can be the top Black Friday retailer, but it will require surgical execution in both.

John Ellis CEO & Founder of The Automotive Advisor Team, LLC

Author: John Ellis

Founder & CEO The Automotive Advisor Team, Inc. BEVEveryting, Inc. Double E Consulting, Inc.

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